D.A.E. Research Report 712, July 1998:  FACTORS INFLUENCING THE EARLY 21ST CENTURY LOUISIANA BEEF INDUSTRY, Alvin Schupp

ABSTRACT: This publication presents results of a survey of selected members of the Louisiana beef industry to identify and evaluate the forces expected to be important in determining the structure and organization of the industry as it enters the next century. Using the DELPHI process, separate panels for the purebred, commercial cow calf, stocker, live animal market and slaughter / process sectors of the industry were selected and their members requested to list the forces which they considered would impact industry change in the upcoming decade. After these submissions were developed into agreement-type statements, the combined list was returned to panel members for them to assess their degree of agreement with each statement. The panel members were also asked to predict Year 2002 values for six selected industry statistical measures, given their 1996/97 values. In general, the industry members feel that all sectors of the Louisiana industry will continue recent downsizing trends and that all sectors will be moving toward producing more uniform intermediate and end products, in keeping with consumer preferences and the successes of the broiler, turkey and pork industries in making this change. There was little perception that the industry would become more integrated, either through contracts or ownership. These results appear to indicate that firms in the Louisiana beef industry will remain independently owned while attempting to provide inputs desired by the national stocker, feeder and packer industries.

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